We run 1,000 simulations and report key percentiles: 5th (worst case), 25th (conservative), 50th (median), 75th (optimistic), and 95th (best case).
Formula
Percentile = value at position (p/100) × (n-1) in sorted resultsMethodology
Percentile projections provide a probability-weighted view of future outcomes. Rather than a single point estimate, they show the full range of possibilities.
Interpretation: - 5th percentile: Only 5% of outcomes are worse than this - 25th percentile: Conservative estimate (1-in-4 chance of being worse) - 50th percentile: Median outcome (equally likely to be higher or lower) - 75th percentile: Optimistic estimate (3-in-4 chance of being worse) - 95th percentile: Only 5% of outcomes are better than this
The spread between percentiles indicates uncertainty: - Narrow spread: More predictable outcomes - Wide spread: Greater uncertainty (higher volatility)
The "probability cone" visualization shows how uncertainty compounds over time - the spread widens as the projection extends further into the future.
How to Interpret
| Range | Label | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| — | 5th Percentile | Worst case scenario - only 5% of outcomes are worse |
| — | 50th Percentile | Median outcome - equally likely to be higher or lower |
| — | 95th Percentile | Best case scenario - only 5% of outcomes are better |
Data Source
Generated from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulation paths using the portfolio's expected return and volatility.
Reference
Box, G.E.P. & Muller, M.E. (1958). A Note on the Generation of Random Normal Deviates. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 29(2), 610-611
Limitations
Projections assume constant expected return and volatility. Actual results will differ due to market conditions, rebalancing, contributions, and withdrawals.
Related Metrics
Project Your Portfolio
Run Monte Carlo simulations to see potential future outcomes.
For Educational Purposes Only
This analysis is not investment advice. Results are based on simplified models using historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk of loss. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.