The Chicago Fed National Activity Index aggregates 85 economic indicators. Zero means trend growth; positive indicates above-trend; negative indicates below-trend.
Formula
CFNAI Score: Positive values (expansion) to +100, Negative values (contraction) to -100Methodology
The CFNAI is one of the most comprehensive measures of US economic activity. It combines 85 monthly indicators across four categories:
1. Production & Income (23 indicators) 2. Employment, Unemployment & Hours (24 indicators) 3. Personal Consumption & Housing (15 indicators) 4. Sales, Orders & Inventories (23 indicators)
Interpretation: - CFNAI = 0: Economy growing at historical trend - CFNAI > 0: Above-trend growth (expansion) - CFNAI < 0: Below-trend growth (contraction risk) - CFNAI < -0.7 (3-month average): High recession probability
The CFNAI is designed to be centered at zero, making it easy to identify whether current conditions are above or below trend. Its breadth makes it less susceptible to noise from any single indicator.
How to Interpret
| Range | Label | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0.35 | Strong Expansion | Well above trend growth |
| 0 to 0.35 | Above Trend | Modest expansion above historical average |
| -0.35 to 0 | Below Trend | Growth below historical average |
| < -0.35 | Contraction Risk | Significantly below trend - recession risk elevated |
Data Source
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank monthly release via FRED.
Reference
Chicago Federal Reserve (2024). Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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For Educational Purposes Only
This analysis is not investment advice. Results are based on simplified models using historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk of loss. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.